Alternatives Horizon 2030
Square Groupe recently took part in the latest Preqin webinar on the future and outlook of private markets towards 2030 and would like to share its perspective with
you.
Private Markets by 2030: trends, dynamics and opportunities for investors
Private markets, including private equity, private credit, infrastructure and unlisted
real estate, continue to profoundly reshape the global financial landscape. During the
“Private Markets in 2030” webinar, hosted by BlackRock and Preqin, several key
structural trends were highlighted. The conclusion was clear: private markets are
steadily gaining importance and are expected to reach USD 32 trillion in assets
under management by 2030, compared with approximately USD 16 trillion today.
Square Groupe presents below its analysis and a summary of the key takeaways
from the webinar, complemented by data from studies conducted by Preqin,
BlackRock Aladdin and the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), as well as an
assessment of what this means for Square Groupe’s activities in Private Equity and
Value-Add Real Estate.
Structural growth of private markets
According to Preqin, private assets now represent 4.7% of the global investable
universe (USD 246.3 trillion), up from 3.4% in 2020. Institutional investors have
already crossed a significant threshold: their portfolios now allocate an average of
20% to private assets, with some U.S. endowments reaching up to 40%.
This shift is driven by several factors:
→ Companies are remaining private for longer, benefiting from a favorable non-
listed financing environment.
→ Innovation in investment vehicles, including semi-liquid funds, secondary
platforms and tokenization, is improving access, particularly for private
investors.
→ The search for risk-adjusted returns is pushing allocators away from the
traditional 60/40 model toward portfolios including 20% to 40% of private
assets.
Towards USD 32 trillion in assets under management by 2030
Private markets are expected to grow at approximately 9% per year through 2030,
driven by:
→ the rapid expansion of private credit, expected to exceed USD 4.5 trillion;
→ the increasing strategic role of infrastructure, supported by the energy
transition, digitalisation and supply chain security;
→ the resilience of private equity, which remains the largest private asset class,
estimated at USD 11–12 trillion by 2030.
While growth may be more moderate than in the past,it remains structural and
supported by long-term fundamental drivers.
The five “mega-forces” reshaping private markets
According to Wei Li (BlackRock), five global forces will shape the next decade:
Energy transition and decarbonisation
→ massive investments in renewable energy, energy efficiency and the
renovation of existing assets.
These trends require an unprecedented volume of private capital. Public markets
alone are no longer sufficient to finance these transformations.
Artificial intelligence & digitalisation
→ accelerating demand for data centers, cloud infrastructure, networks and
productivity tools.
Demographic ageing
→ opportunities in healthcare, long-term services and specialised
accommodation models.
The future of finance
→ tokenisation, digitalisation of markets and new credit models.
Geopolitical fragmentation
→ industrial reshoring, energy sovereignty and critical infrastructure.
Liquidity and cycle management as key factors
The 2021–2024 period experienced:
→ a fundraising peak in 2021,
→ a contraction in 2023–2024,
→ increased liquidity pressure (lower distributions, fewer IPOs and reduced M&A
activity).
Market participants anticipate a new growth cycle starting around 2027, driven by:
→ interest rate normalisation,
→ the return of transaction activity,
→ the recovery of exit markets.
Historically, funds raised during more challenging periods tend to deliver the
strongest performance, as entry points are achieved at more attractive valuations.
Performance dispersion and the importance of manager selection
Private markets exhibit significant dispersion between top-performing and
underperforming managers.
Examples highlighted:
→ top-tier Private Equity funds outperform their benchmark by an average of 7%,
→ compared with only 2% for the best-performing listed equity managers.
This dispersion underscores the importance of operational expertise, asset selection
and the ability to execute value creation strategies.
What this means for Square Groupe
These trends are particularly supportive of Square Groupe’s approach to hospitality
Private Equity and Value-Add real estate:
✔ A favourable environment for Value-Add strategies
The substantial need for energy-efficient renovation, repositioning and operational
improvement aligns perfectly with our model:
→ identifying “sleeping” assets,
→ implementing targeted, certified works (ESG / BREEAM),
→ optimising operations,
→ repositioning assets under strong brands.
✔ An attractive European market
The increasing allocation of capital to Europe, particularly via infrastructure and
private credit, enhances the appeal of Value-Add opportunities in Paris and other
dynamic European cities.
✔ Controlled and disciplined growth opportunities
In a context where investors seek both yield and tangible assets, renovated and
modernised hospitality real estate strategies offer a particularly compelling risk-return
profile.